YouGov MRP poll: Full map and list of Labour candidates tipped to win – LabourList (2024)

Labour is set to gain swathes of Scotland, the Home Counties and the Red Wall, according to YouGov’s latest mega-poll.

The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model from the pollster currently predicts Labour would win a majority of 194 seats, in what would be the party’s best result ever.

The poll projected that Labour would win 422 seats in the House of Commons, with the Conservatives reduced to just 140 seats – their worst result in more than 100 years.

LabourList has mapped out the forecast result from YouGov to look closer at what areas of the country might be turned red at the general election – and who Labour’s new MPs could be.

The forecast shows Labour regaining seats in the Red Wall that it lost in 2019, including areas like Ashfield, Bolsover and Colne Valley, as well as keeping the gains it won in by-elections in huge swings from the Conservatives, such as Blackpool South and Selby.

The party is also expected to make a large number of gains in southern England, including in Hertfordshire, Kent and Cornwall.

Among the ministers set to lose their seats to Labour, based on the MRP forecast, include Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Jonny Mercer and David TC Davies.

Full list of forecast Labour seats – and who would be Labour’s new MPs

Aberafan MaestegStephen Kinnock MP
Airdrie and ShottsKenneth Stevenson
AldershotAlex Baker
Alloa and GrangemouthBrian Leishman
Altrincham and Sale WestConnor Rand
Alyn and DeesideMark Tami MP
Amber ValleyLinsey Farnsworth
AshfieldRhea Keehn
AshfordSojan Joseph
Ashton-under-LyneAngela Rayner MP
AylesburyLaura Kyrke-Smith
Ayr, Carrick and CumnockElaine Stewart
BanburySean Woodco*ck
Bangor AberconwyClaire Hughes
BarkingCandidate not yet selected
Barnsley NorthDan Jarvis MP
Barnsley SouthStephanie Peaco*ck MP
Barrow and FurnessMichelle Scrogham
BasingstokeLuke Murphy
BassetlawJo White
Bathgate and LinlithgowKirsteen Sullivan
BatterseaMarsha de Cordova MP
Beckenham and PengeLiam Conlon
BedfordMohammad Yasin MP
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkNeil Coyle MP
Bethnal Green and StepneyRushanara Ali MP
Bexleyheath and CrayfordDaniel Francis
BirkenheadAlison McGovern
Birmingham EdgbastonPreet Gill MP
Birmingham ErdingtonPaulette Hamilton MP
Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyTahir Ali MP
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthLiam Byrne MP
Birmingham LadywoodShabana Mahmood MP
Birmingham NorthfieldLaurence Turner
Birmingham Perry BarrKhalid Mahmood MP
Birmingham Selly OakAlistair Carns
Birmingham YardleyJess Phillips MP
Bishop AucklandSam Rushworth
BlackburnKate Hollern MP
Blackley and Middleton SouthGraham Stringer MP
Blackpool North and FleetwoodLorraine Beavers
Blackpool SouthChris Webb
Blaenau Gwent and RhymneyNick Smith MP
Blaydon and ConsettLiz Twist MP
Blyth and AshingtonIan Lavery MP
BolsoverNatalie Fleet
Bolton North EastKirith Entwistle
Bolton South and WalkdenYasmin Qureshi MP
Bolton WestPhil Brickell
BootlePeter Dowd MP
Bournemouth EastTom Hayes
Bournemouth WestJessica Toale
BracknellPeter Swallow
Bradford EastImran Hussain MP
Bradford SouthJudith Cummins MP
Bradford WestNas Shah MP
Brent EastDawn Butler MP
Brent WestBarry Gardiner MP
Brentford and IsleworthRuth Cadbury MP
BridgendChris Elmore MP
BridgwaterLeigh Redman
Brighton Kemptown and PeacehavenChris Ward
Bristol EastKerry McCarthy
Bristol North EastDamien Egan MP
Bristol North WestDarren Jones MP
Bristol SouthKarin Smyth MP
Bromley and Biggin HillOana Olaru-Holmes
BroxtoweJuliet Campbell
Buckingham and BletchleyCallum Anderson
BurnleyOliver Ryan
Burton and UttoxeterJacob Collier
Bury NorthJames Frith
Bury SouthChristian Wakeford MP
CaerfyrddinMartha O’Neil
CaerphillyChris Evans MP
Calder ValleyJosh Fenton-Glynn
Camborne and RedruthPerran Moon
CambridgeDaniel Zeichner MP
Cannock ChaseJosh Newbury
CanterburyRosie Duffield MP
Cardiff EastJo Stevens MP
Cardiff NorthAnna McMorrin MP
Cardiff South and PenarthStephen Doughty MP
Cardiff WestAlex Barros-Curtis
CarlisleJulie Minns
Central AyrshireAlan Gemmell
Central DevonOllie Pearson
Chatham and AylesfordTris Osborne
Chelsea and FulhamBen Coleman
Chester North and NestonSamantha Dixon MP
ChesterfieldToby Perkins MP
Chingford and Woodford GreenShama Tatler
Chipping BarnetDan Tomlinson
Cities of London and WestminsterRachel Blake
City of DurhamMary Kelly Foy
Clapham and Brixton HillBell Ribeiro-Addy MP
Clwyd EastBecky Gittins
Clwyd NorthGill German
Coatbridge and BellshillFrank McNally
ColchesterPam Cox
Colne ValleyPaul Davies
Corby and East NorthamptonshireLee Barron
Coventry EastMary Creagh
Coventry North WestTaiwo Owatemi MP
Coventry SouthZarah Sultana MP
Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyMelanie Ward
Cramlington and KillingworthEmma Foody
CrawleyPeter Lamb
Crewe and NantwichConnor Naismith
Croydon EastNatasha Irons
Croydon SouthBen Taylor
Croydon WestSarah Jones MP
Cumbernauld and KirkintillochKatrina Murray
Dagenham and RainhamMargaret Mullane
DarlingtonLola McEvoy
DartfordJim Dickson
Derby NorthCatherine Atkinson
Derby SouthBaggy Shanker
Derbyshire DalesJohn Whitby
Dewsbury and BatleyHeather Iqbal
Doncaster CentralSally Jameson
Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeLee Pitcher
Doncaster NorthEd Miliband MP
Dover and DealMike Tapp
DudleySonia Kumar
Dulwich and West NorwoodHelen Hayes MP
Dunfermline and DollarGraeme Downie
Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardAlex Mayer
Ealing Central and ActonRupa Huq MP
Ealing NorthJames Murray MP
Ealing SouthallDeidre Costigan
Earley and WoodleyYuan Yang
EasingtonGrahame Morris MP
East HamStephen Timms MP
East Kilbride and StrathavenJoani Reid
East RenfrewshireBlair McDougall
East ThanetPolly Billington
East Worthing and ShorehamTom Rutland
Edinburgh North and LeithTracey Gilbert
Edinburgh SouthIan Murray MP
Edmonton and Winchmore HillKate Osamor MP
Ellesmere Port and BromboroughJustin Madders MP
Eltham and ChislehurstClive Efford MP
Enfield NorthFeryal Clark MP
ErewashAdam Thompson
Erith and ThamesmeadAbena Oppong-Asare MP
ExeterSteve Race
FalkirkEuan Stainbank
Feltham and HestonSeema Malhotra MP
Filton and Bradley StokeClaire Hazelgrove
Finchley and Golders GreenSarah Sackman
Folkestone and HytheTony Vaughan
Forest of DeanMatt Bishop
Gateshead Central and WhickhamMark Ferguson
GedlingMichael Payne
Gillingham and RainhamNaushabah Khan
Glasgow EastJohn Grady
Glasgow NorthMartin Rhodes
Glasgow North EastMaureen Burke
Glasgow SouthGordon McKee
Glasgow South WestZubir Ahmed
Glasgow WestPatricia Ferguson
Glenrothes and Mid FifeRichard Baker
GloucesterAlex McIntyre
Gorton and DentonAndrew Gwynne MP
GowerTonia Antoniazzi MP
GraveshamLauren Sullivan
Great Grimsby and CleethorpesMelanie Onn
Great YarmouthKeir Cozens
Greenwich and WoolwichMatthew Pennycook MP
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonDiane Abbott MP
Hackney South and ShoreditchMeg Hillier MP
HalesowenAlex Ballinger
HalifaxKate Dearden
Hamilton and Clyde ValleyImogen Walker
Hammersmith and ChiswickAndy Slaughter MP
Hampstead and HighgateTulip Siddiq MP
Harborough, Oadby and WigstonHajira Piranie
HarlowChris Vince
Harrow EastPrimesh Patel
Harrow WestGareth Thomas MP
HartlepoolJonathan Brash
Harwich and North EssexAlex Diner
Hastings and RyeHelena Dollimore
Hayes and HarlingtonJohn McDonnell MP
Hemel HempsteadDavid Taylor
HendonDavid Pinto-Duschinsky
HexhamJoe Morris
Heywood and Middleton NorthElsie Blundell
High PeakJon Pearce
HitchinAlistair Strathern MP
Holborn and St PancrasKeir Starmer MP
Hornsey and Friern BarnetCatherine West MP
Houghton and Sunderland SouthBridget Phillipson MP
Hove and PortsladePeter Kyle MP
HuddersfieldHarpreet Uppal
HyndburnSarah Smith
Ilford NorthWes Streeting MP
Ilford SouthJas Athwal
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestMartin McCluskey
IpswichJack Abbott
Isle of Wight EastEmily Brothers
Isle of Wight WestRichard Quigley
Islington NorthPraful Nargund
Islington South and FinsburyEmily Thornberry MP
Jarrow and Gateshead EastKate Osborne MP
Keighley and IlkleyJohn Grogan
Kensington and BayswaterJoe Powell
KetteringRosie Wrighting
Kilmarnock and LoudounLillian Jones
Kingston upon Hull EastKarl Turner MP
Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamDiana Johnson MP
Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceEmma Hardy MP
KnowsleyAnneliese Midgley
Lancaster and WyreCat Smith MP
Leeds Central and HeadingleyAlex Sobel MP
Leeds EastRichard Burgon MP
Leeds North EastFabian Hamilton MP
Leeds North WestKatie White
Leeds SouthHilary Benn MP
Leeds South West and MorleyMark Sewards
Leeds West and PudseyRachel Reeves MP
Leicester EastRajesh Agrawal
Leicester SouthJonathan Ashworth MP
Leicester WestLiz Kendall MP
Leigh and AthertonJo Platt
Lewisham EastJanet Daby MP
Lewisham NorthVicky Foxcroft MP
Lewisham West and East DulwichEllie Reeves MP
Leyton and WansteadCalvin Bailey
LincolnHamish Falconer
Liverpool GarstonMaria Eagle MP
Liverpool RiversideKim Johnson MP
Liverpool WaltonDan Carden MP
Liverpool WavertreePaula Barker MP
Liverpool West DerbyIan Byrne MP
LivingstonGregor Poynton
LlanelliNia Griffith MP
Lothian EastDouglas Alexander
LoughboroughJeevun Sandher
LowestoftJess Asato
Luton NorthSarah Owen MP
Luton South and South BedfordshireRachel Hopkins MP
MacclesfieldTim Roca
MakerfieldJosh Simons
Manchester CentralLucy Powell MP
Manchester RusholmeAfzal Khan MP
Manchester WithingtonJeff Smith MP
MansfieldSteve Yemm
Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareGerald Jones MP
Mid and South PembrokeshireHenry Tufnell
Mid BedfordshireMaahwish Mirza
Mid CheshireAndrew Cooper
Mid DerbyshireJonathan Davies
Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastAndy McDonald MP
Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandLuke Myer
MidlothianKirsty McNeill
Milton Keynes CentralEmily Darlington
Milton Keynes NorthChris Curtis
Mitcham and MordenSiobhain McDonagh MP
MonmouthshireCatherine f*ckes
Morecambe and LunesdaleLizzi Collinge
Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukePamela Nash
Na h-Eileanan an IarTorcuil Crichton
Neath and Swansea EastCarolyn Harris MP
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestChi Onwurah MP
Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendMary Glindon MP
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthCatherine McKinnell MP
Newcastle-under-LymeAdam Jogee
Newport EastJessica Morden MP
Newport West and IslwynRuth Jones MP
Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorAlan Strickland
Normanton and HemsworthJon Trickett MP
North Ayrshire and ArranIrene Campbell
North DurhamLuke Akehurst
North East DerbyshireLouise Jones
North East HertfordshireChris Hinchliff
North East Somerset and HanhamDan Norris
North SomersetSadik Al-Hassan
North Warwickshire and BedworthRachel Taylor
North West CambridgeshireSam Carling
North West LeicestershireAmanda Hack
Northampton NorthLucy Rigby
Northampton SouthMike Reader
Norwich NorthAlice MacDonald
Norwich SouthClive Lewis MP
Nottingham EastNadia Whittome MP
Nottingham North and KimberleyAlex Norris MP
Nottingham SouthLilian Greenwood MP
NuneatonJodie Gosling
Oldham East and SaddleworthDebbie Abrahams MP
Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonJim McMahon MP
Ossett and Denby DaleJade Botterill
Oxford EastAnneliese Dodds MP
Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthAlison Taylor
Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthJohanna Baxter
PeckhamMiatta Fahnbulleh
Pendle and cl*theroeJonathan Hinder
Penistone and StocksbridgeMarie Tidball
Penrith and SolwayMarkus Campbell-Savours
PeterboroughAndrew Pakes
Plymouth Moor ViewFred Thomas
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportLuke Pollard MP
Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyYvette Cooper MP
PontypriddAlex Davies-Jones MP
Poplar and LimehouseApsana Begum MP
Portsmouth NorthAmanda Martin
Portsmouth SouthStephen Morgan MP
PrestonMark Hendrick MP
PutneyFleur Anderson MP
Queen’s Park and Maida ValeGeorgia Gould
Rawmarsh and ConisbroughJohn Healey MP
Reading CentralMatt Rodda MP
Reading West and Mid BerkshireOlivia Bailey
RedcarAnna Turley
RedditchChris Bloore
Rhondda and OgmoreChris Bryant MP
Ribble ValleyMaya Ellis
RochdalePaul Waugh
Rochester and StroodLauren Edwards
Rossendale and DarwenAndy MacNae
Rother ValleyJake Richards
RotherhamSarah Champion MP
RugbyJohn Slinger
Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerTony Gill
Runcorn and HelsbyMike Amesbury MP
RushcliffeJames Naish
RutherglenMichael Shanks MP
SalfordRebecca Long Bailey MP
Scarborough and WhitbyAlison Hume
Sc*nthorpeNic Dakin
Sefton CentralBill Esterson MP
SelbyKeir Mather MP
Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughGill Furniss MP
Sheffield CentralAbtisam Mohamed
Sheffield HallamOlivia Blake MP
Sheffield HeeleyLouise Haigh MP
Sheffield South EastClive Betts MP
Sherwood ForestMichelle Welsh
ShipleyAnna Dixon
ShrewsburyJulia Buckley
SloughTan Deshi MP
SmethwickGurinder Singh Josan
South Basildon and East ThurrockJack Ferguson
South DerbyshireSamantha Niblett
South DorsetLloyd Hatton
South NorfolkBen Goldsborough
South RibblePaul Foster
South ShieldsEmma Lewell-Buck MP
Southampton ItchenDarren Paffey
Southampton TestSatvir Kaur
Southend East and RochfordBayo Alaba
Southend West and LeighDavid Burton-Sampson
Southgate and Wood GreenBambos Charalambous MP
SouthportPatrick Hurley
Spen ValleyKim Leadbeater MP
St Austell and NewquayNoah Law
St Helens NorthDavid Baines
St Helens South and WhistonMarie Rimmer MP
StaffordLeigh Ingham
Stalybridge and HydeJonathan Reynolds MP
StevenageKevin Bonavia
StockportNavendu Mishra MP
Stockton NorthChris McDonald
Stockton WestJoe Dancey
Stoke-on-Trent CentralGareth Snell
Stoke-on-Trent NorthDavid Williams
Stoke-on-Trent SouthAllison Gardner
StourbridgeCat Eccles
Stratford and BowUma Kumaran
Streatham and Croydon NorthSteve Reed MP
Stretford and UrmstonAndrew Western MP
StroudSimon Opher
Sunderland CentralLewis Atkinson
Swansea WestTorsten Bell
Swindon NorthWill Stone
Swindon SouthHeidi Alexander
TattonRyan Jude
TelfordShaun Davies
ThurrockJen Craft
Tipton and WednesburyAntonia Bance
TootingRosena Allin-Khan MP
TorfaenNick Thomas-Symonds MP
TottenhamDavid Lammy MP
Truro and FalmouthJayne Kirkham
TynemouthAlan Campbell MP
Uxbridge and South RuislipDanny Beales
Vale of GlamorganKanishka Narayan
Vauxhall and Camberwell GreenFlo Eshalomi MP
Wakefield and RothwellSimon Lightwood MP
WallaseyAngela Eagle MP
Walsall and BloxwichValerie Vaz MP
WalthamstowStella Creasy MP
Warrington NorthCharlotte Nichols MP
Warrington SouthSarah Hall
Warwick and LeamingtonMatt Western MP
Washington and Gateshead SouthSharon Hodgson MP
WatfordMatt Turmaine
Wellingborough and RushdenGen Kitchen MP
Welwyn HatfieldAndrew Lewin
West BromwichSarah Coombes
West DunbartonshireDouglas McAllister
West Ham and BecktonJames Asser
West LancashireAshley Dalton MP
West SuffolkRebecca Denness
Weston-super-MareDaniel Aldridge
Whitehaven and WorkingtonJosh MacAlister
Widnes and HalewoodDerek Twigg MP
WiganLisa Nandy MP
Wirral WestMatthew Patrick
Wolverhampton North EastSureena Brackenridge
Wolverhampton South EastPat McFadden MP
Wolverhampton WestWarinder Juss
WorcesterTom Collins
Worsley and EcclesMichael Wheeler
Worthing WestBeccy Cooper
WrexhamAndrew Ranger
WycombeEmma Reynolds
Wythenshawe and Sale EastMike Kane MP
Ynys MônIeuan Mon Williams
York CentralRachael Maskell MP
York OuterLuke Charters

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YouGov MRP poll: Full map and list of Labour candidates tipped to win – LabourList (2024)
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