The job market is in trouble, and it’s worse than most people realize. Job openings in October plummeted to their lowest point since February 2021, according to data from Indeed, painting a grim picture for job seekers and economists alike. But here’s where it gets even more concerning: this decline comes amid a prolonged government shutdown, leaving policymakers scrambling for alternative data to gauge the health of the economy.
Imagine a job fair where the tables are emptier than usual, and the brochures in hand feel like relics of a more prosperous time. That’s the reality captured in a recent image from a NYS Department of Labor event in Buffalo, New York, where job seekers were met with fewer opportunities than they’ve seen in years.
Indeed’s Job Postings Index, a key indicator of employment trends, dropped to 101.9 as of October 24—the lowest since early 2021, when the economy was still reeling from the pandemic. To put this in perspective, the index uses February 2020 as its baseline (100), and the latest figure represents a 0.5% decline from the start of October and a staggering 3.5% drop since mid-August.
And this is the part most people miss: under normal circumstances, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would have released its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) by now—a report closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs of slack in the job market. But with the shutdown threatening to become the longest in history, that data is nowhere to be found. Instead, economists are turning to platforms like Indeed for real-time insights, and what they’re seeing isn’t reassuring.
The most recent JOLTS report, from August, showed job openings holding steady at 7.23 million—but that’s down 7% from January. Meanwhile, Indeed’s dashboard reveals another worrying trend: salary offerings are shrinking as job postings decline. Year-over-year wage growth, as measured by Indeed’s postings, slowed to 2.5% in August, down from 3.4% in January.
Here’s the controversial part: While the Fed has been laser-focused on inflation, which remains stubbornly above its 2% target, officials are now sounding the alarm about the labor market. Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75%-4%, citing rising risks to employment. But is this enough? Some argue that the Fed’s shift in focus may be too little, too late, especially as unemployment creeps up.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook summed it up bluntly: “Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings. There’s reason to be concerned, because there’s a slight uptick in the unemployment rate over the summer.” And with the nonfarm payrolls report—normally released on the first Friday of the month—also delayed due to the shutdown, economists are left to speculate. Dow Jones surveys suggest a decline of 60,000 jobs in October and an unemployment rate rise to 4.5%.
So, here’s the question for you: Is the Fed doing enough to address the weakening job market, or are we on the brink of a deeper economic downturn? Let’s discuss in the comments—your perspective could spark a much-needed conversation.
